What are the most important warning signals that a pandemic is about to start?

According to the World Health Organization, "The most important warning signal comes when clusters of patients with clinical symptoms of influenza, closely related in time and place, are detected, as this suggests human-to-human transmission is taking place. For similar reasons, the detection of cases in health workers caring for H5N1 patients would suggest human-to-human transmission. Detection of such events should be followed by immediate field investigation of every possible case to confirm the diagnosis, identify the source, and determine whether human-to-human transmission is occurring.

Studies of viruses, conducted by specialized WHO reference laboratories, can corroborate field investigations by spotting genetic and other changes in the virus indicative of an improved ability to infect humans. This is why WHO repeatedly asks affected countries to share viruses with the international research community."

Okay, so on 23 May 2006, there was a report from the Ministry of Health in Indonesia that confirmed an additional case of human infection with the H5N1 avian influenza virus. The 32-year old man developed symptoms on May 15 and by May 22, he was dead.

The report goes on to say, "The case is part of a family cluster in the Kubu Sembelang village, Karo District, of North Sumatra. The man is the seventh member of an extended family to become infected with the H5N1 virus and the sixth to die. An additional person, who was the first member of the family to fall ill, died of respiratory disease on 4 May. No specimens were taken prior to her burial and the cause of her death cannot be determined. However, as her clinical course was compatible with H5N1 infection, epidemiologists at the outbreak site include this woman as the initial case in the cluster.

The newly confirmed case is a brother of the initial case. Specimens were taken on 21 May and flown the same day to Jakarta. Tests run overnight confirmed his infection. His 10-year-old son died of H5N1 infection on 13 May. The father was closely involved in caring for his son, and this contact is considered a possible source of infection.

Although the investigation is continuing, preliminary findings indicate that three of the confirmed cases spent the night of 29 April in a small room together with the initial case at a time when she was symptomatic and coughing frequently. These cases include the woman’s two sons and a second brother, aged 25 years, who is the sole surviving case among infected members of this family. Other infected family members lived in adjacent homes.

All confirmed cases in the cluster can be directly linked to close and prolonged exposure to a patient during a phase of severe illness. Although human-to-human transmission cannot be ruled out, the search for a possible alternative source of exposure is continuing.

Both the Ministry of Health and WHO are concerned about the situation in Kubu Sembelang and have intensified investigation and response activities. Priority is now being given to the search for additional cases of influenza-like illness in other family members, close contacts, and the general community. To date, the investigation has found no evidence of spread within the general community and no evidence that efficient human-to-human transmission has occurred."

Did you catch that? "No evidence that 'efficient' human-to-human transmission". But in their own letters, the WHO states that when human-to-human transmission takes place, it is, by itself, the most important warning signal of the start of a pandemic. Don't kid yourself, this thing is real

Maybe you've seen it, chances are you have not, but the Honorable Mike Leavitt, Secretary of Health and Human Services has been making the rounds, visiting many of our United States and talking about the level of preparedness at the State and National level. Many of these meetings can been seen on university cable channels if you have them or on DishNetwork (look for channels 9400 - 9412).

At these meetings, Mr. Leavitt talks about the Great Pandemic of 1918. It too was an avian flu. Here is just a sampling of the historical record of the 1918 Pandemic from some of his recent speeches. The dates in bold represent the date that the ensuing information was presented:

February 2, 2006

The Great Pandemic also touched Connecticut.

It struck the week of September 11th, laying low Navy personnel in New London. Just two weeks later, about 2,000 cases of influenza were reported in and around the city.

On September 27th, the Public Health Service declared, "influenza is prevalent throughout the eastern and southern parts of the state and it appears to be increasing." It was. Three days later, 9,000 cases were reported. A week later, that number had doubled. Then it redoubled, and redoubled again. By the end of October, an estimated 180,000 people had been struck by influenza.

By that point, more than 300 people had died here in Hartford. The Hartford Golf Club became an emergency hospital. A Public Health Service officer from Hartford named F.S. Echols fell to the pandemic. A nurse named Beatrice Springer Wilde recounted the tragic story of four Yale students that she treated. They had become ill while traveling and decided to get off the train in Hartford. Their last steps were taken from the train station to the hospital, for within twenty-four hours, all were dead.

February 7, 2006

The Great Pandemic also touched Massachusetts.

It first came here, to Boston. On August 27th, 1918, two sailors at Commonwealth Pier reported in sick with influenza. The next day, there were eight. By the third day, influenza had struck nearly 60 people.

That fire soon became an inferno, and within two weeks, 2,000 officers and men had been struck.

On September 8th, a spark of influenza touched Camp Devens, a military camp near Boston with about 50,000 soldiers. The conflagration that erupted is difficult to comprehend.

A physician - known only as Roy - described the situation as it appeared in late September. He wrote:

'This epidemic started about four weeks ago, and has developed so rapidly that the camp is demoralized and all ordinary work is held up till it has passed....These men start with what appears to be an ordinary attack of . . . Influenza, and when brought to the Hospital they very rapidly develop the most viscous type of Pneumonia that has ever been seen.

Two hours after admission they have the Mahogany spots over the cheek bones, and a few hours later you can begin to see the Cyanosis (pronounce "Cy-an-no-sis") extending from their ears and spreading all over the face, until it is hard to distinguish the colored men from the white.

It is only a matter of a few hours then until death comes, and it is simply a struggle for air until they suffocate. It is horrible. One can stand it to see one, two or twenty men die, but to see these poor devils dropping like flies sort of gets on your nerves. We have been averaging about 100 deaths per day, and still keeping it up.'

By the time the pandemic finally passed, an estimated 45,000 people had perished in Massachusetts.

February 22, 2006

That Great Pandemic also touched Alabama.

It first appeared in late September 1918 in Florence, Alabama (in the northwest corner of the state). Just three weeks later, over 25,000 cases of influenza in the state had been reported to the U.S. Public Health Service.

It is impossible to know for sure exactly how many Alabamans were affected by the flu, since regular reports to the U.S. Public Health Service were never made. But it is known that during the last two weeks of October, more than 37,000 cases of the flu erupted in Alabama.

People around the state died by the hundreds. One man, J.D. Washburn served in a medical unit in Alabama during the war and recalled his experience:

'We worked like dogs from about seven in the morning until the last patient of the day had been checked in or out-usually about 10 o'clock that night. The men died like flies, and several times we ran out of boxes to bury them in, and had to put their bodies in cold storage until more boxes were shipped in. It was horrible.'

March 17, 2006

That Great Pandemic also touched Illinois.

Chicago was then the nation's second largest city and the country's largest rail hub. As a consequence, the disease reached the city quickly. Before the disease reached this city, overconfident public health officers proclaimed, "We have the Spanish influenza situation well in hand now."

Then the disease came.

Influenza was reported in Chicago on September 27th. Within two weeks, it was epidemic throughout the state. Cities like Kankakee and Rockford were as hard hit as rural sections and coal-mining districts.

But Chicago saw the most awful impacts. While the pandemic raged toward its dreadful peak, the city saw an average of 12,000 new cases each week. More than 2,100 Chicagoans died during the second week of October. More than 2,300 died during the third week.

The city ran out of hearses. Signs were posted banning public funerals, and limiting funeral attendees to no more than 10, in addition to the undertaker, the minister, and necessary drivers. No bodies were allowed in churches.

A U.S. Public Health Services Officer named Jo Cobb, who was working at the city's Marine Hospital wrote to a friend, "Our beds were filled as fast as emptied."

Navy nurse Josie Brown, who served at Naval Hospital in Great Lakes remembered:

"The morgues were packed almost to the ceiling with bodies stacked one on top of another. The morticians worked day and night. You could never turn around without seeing a big red truck loaded with caskets for the train station so bodies could be sent home. We didn't have the time to treat them. We didn't take temperatures; we didn't even have time to take blood pressure. We would give them a little hot whisky toddy; that's about all we had time to do. They would have terrific nosebleeds with it. Sometimes the blood would just shoot across the room. You had to get out of the way or someone's nose would bleed all over you."

March 30, 2006

That Great Pandemic also touched California.

The first few cases were reported in Belvedere and San Gabriel in Los Angeles County in the last days of September 1918. The next week, more than 500 cases were reported.

In Los Angeles, local health officials were optimistic. They said, "If ordinary precautions are observed, there is no cause for alarm."

They could not have been more wrong. The disease was exploding around the state.

Within two days of issuing that statement, schools and churches were shut down to prevent the spread of the disease. Theaters were closed sometimes for good as they could not withstand the loss of revenue.

By the first week of November, more than 115,000 cases and hundreds of deaths across the state had been reported.

Makeshift hospitals were hastily opened to deal with the surge of patients that were overwhelming the health care system.

In San Francisco and elsewhere, mandates compelled the wearing of masks in public on penalty of fines or even imprisonment.

The San Francisco Chronicle reported, "The man who wears no mask will likely become isolated, suspected, and regarded as a slacker. Like a man of means without a Liberty Loan button, he'll be shy of friends."

For more historical record, you can read the accounts at: www.pandemicflu.gov/

Now, everyone on the Nightly News and pretty much everyone in government will tell you, "You have no immunity to this virus". That is true. What they don't tell you is that the stronger your immune system is, the more likely you'll be able to fight off the virus. There will be no vaccine available for at minimum six to eight months after any Pandemic begins. Even then, the first to get it will not be in the general population. It will be those involved in providing services, healthcare professionals and maybe the most at risk.

But there are things you can do.

First and formost, begin to prepare now!

Stock up on canned and dried foods. If everyone is sick, there will be no one to work at the grocery store, no one to drive the truck to deliver to the grocery store, no one to warehouse the food and produce at the wholesalers, no one at the plant to can the goods...

Stock up on water now. Start keeping sealed containers of water. Ideally you'll have one gallon per person per day in storage for six months.

Stock up on items you may need to cook with. You may not have service like gas or electric. A camping stove that uses propane is one way, cans of sterno will work too.

Take steps to boost your and your family's immune system now. The best product on the market is found here: Improve Immune System.

Do your own homework. The evening news will tell you a little with their slant. The government doesn't want to start a panic. Check out our links section for places you can use to follow the course of this virus for yourself and don't be caught off guard.

Pray. That's right, Pray. It is aid that 90% or more of the U.S. population believes in God. Well, we'll see when this thing hits. Since so many of us believe in God then let me remind you too that this isn't something He is doing to punish and it isn't something He is allowing to happen. We've been given authority in this earth to speak our own world into existence. We've been given the authority by the words of our mouth. In the book of Genesis, it is written, "And God said, Let there be light: and there was light". We were created in His image. If God said, and it was, then what we say will be as well.

Avian Flu H5N1